Shell Hong Kong · EV Charging · Live model

Move any assumption. The answer recalculates.

This runs a full Monte Carlo simulation in your browser — every slider re-runs 4,000 five-year scenarios. Nothing here is a fixed slide. If you disagree with an assumption, change it and watch what happens to the answer.

Added profit / yr

HK$ —

median, at full run-rate

Return on team

—

profit ÷ team cost

Chance it pays

—

probability NPV above zero

Net present value

HK$ —

median over 5 years

The decision

What we think is true

Drag these. They are estimates, not facts.

The wallet

Risk

Where the profit comes from

Annual revenue, built up over 24 months. The scale starts near today's level, not at zero, so the change is readable.

How likely is each outcome

Every simulated five-year outcome, sorted. Red is a loss, green is a gain.

Worst 10%: —

Middle: —

Best 10%: —

What the answer actually depends on

Longer bar means that assumption moves the result more. Argue about the top two.

When each thing happens

Nothing here needs a construction programme. The only capital decision sits at month 12, and only if the data supports it.

Phase	Months	What we do	Owner

Read this before quoting a number

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