Shell Hong Kong · EV Charging · Live model
This runs a full Monte Carlo simulation in your browser — every slider re-runs 4,000 five-year scenarios. Nothing here is a fixed slide. If you disagree with an assumption, change it and watch what happens to the answer.
Added profit / yr
HK$ —
average, at full run-rate
Return on team
—
profit ÷ team cost
Chance it pays
—
probability NPV above zero
Net present value
HK$ —
value created above the 8.3% required return, after paying for everything
Drag these. They are estimates, not facts.
CLP HK$1.500 · HK Electric HK$1.997 · blended HK$1.565
Includes the one-off launch build (HK$1.4M) and customer acquisition (HK$1.36M, front-loaded) — costs the first version of this model left out. Annual revenue, built up over 24 months. The scale is anchored just below today's level and does not rescale as you drag — so the coloured bands genuinely grow and shrink with your assumptions.
Nothing here needs a construction programme. The only capital decision sits at month 12, and only if the data supports it.
| Phase | Months | What we do | Owner |
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Both figures are published. The hurdle is Shell's own group return; the warning is the only listed pure-play EV charging operator in Hong Kong.
The hurdle
9.4%
Shell plc group ROACE, 2025 (11.3% in 2024). A programme returning less than this destroys value at group level.
Contribution per dollar of team cost, year 3: —
IRR is deliberately not shown. With no capital outlay the denominator is near zero, so IRR runs into the hundreds of percent and means nothing. Return on cost is the honest measure for an operating programme.
The warning
−HK$144M
Cornerstone Technologies (HKEX GEM:8391), FY2024 net loss. Accumulated losses HK$502M. Equity down to HK$1.2M from HK$105M. Gearing 156×.
Pure-play charging in Hong Kong has destroyed capital. Shell's advantage is that charging does not have to stand alone.
This is not a timeline. The horizontal axis is money, not time: each bar covers a band of five-year NPV, and its height is the share of the 4,000 simulations that landed in that band. Green is a gain, pink a loss. Programmes cancelled in year 2 sit separately on the left, because they all share one outcome and would otherwise flatten the rest.
Worst 10%: —
Middle: —
Best 10%: —
Longer bar means that assumption moves the result more. Argue about the top two.
They measure different things. The HK$2.7M is gross contribution per year once the programme is at full run-rate. The NPV is what is left over after four deductions: the years it takes to ramp, the HK$966,000 a year the team costs, the one-off launch and enrolment spend, and a discount at Shell’s 8.3% cost of capital.
So NPV is not the profit — it is the surplus above the return Shell already requires. A positive NPV means the programme beats the hurdle; HK$1.5M is the value created on top of clearing it. A HK$10M business returning exactly 8.3% would show an NPV of zero and still be perfectly sound.
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