Shell Hong Kong · EV Charging · Live model

Move any assumption. The answer recalculates.

This runs a full Monte Carlo simulation in your browser — every slider re-runs 4,000 five-year scenarios. Nothing here is a fixed slide. If you disagree with an assumption, change it and watch what happens to the answer.

Added profit / yr

HK$ —

median, at full run-rate

Return on team

—

profit ÷ team cost

Chance it pays

—

probability NPV above zero

Net present value

HK$ —

total across 5 yrs, in today’s money

The decision

What we think is true

Drag these. They are estimates, not facts.

Electricity

CLP HK$1.500 · HK Electric HK$1.997 · blended HK$1.565

The wallet

Risk

Where the profit comes from

Includes the one-off launch build (HK$1.4M) and customer acquisition (HK$1.36M, front-loaded) — costs the first version of this model left out. Annual revenue, built up over 24 months. The scale is anchored just below today's level and does not rescale as you drag — so the coloured bands genuinely grow and shrink with your assumptions.

How likely is each outcome

Each bar is the share of simulations landing in that range. Green is a gain, pink a loss. Programmes cancelled in year 2 are shown separately on the left, because they all share one outcome and would otherwise flatten the rest.

Worst 10%: —

Middle: —

Best 10%: —

What the answer actually depends on

Longer bar means that assumption moves the result more. Argue about the top two.

When each thing happens

Nothing here needs a construction programme. The only capital decision sits at month 12, and only if the data supports it.

Phase Months What we do Owner

Judged against the real benchmarks

Both figures are published. The hurdle is Shell's own group return; the warning is the only listed pure-play EV charging operator in Hong Kong.

The hurdle

9.4%

Shell plc group ROACE, 2025 (11.3% in 2024). A programme returning less than this destroys value at group level.

Contribution per dollar of team cost, year 3: —

IRR is deliberately not shown. With no capital outlay the denominator is near zero, so IRR runs into the hundreds of percent and means nothing. Return on cost is the honest measure for an operating programme.

The warning

−HK$144M

Cornerstone Technologies (HKEX GEM:8391), FY2024 net loss. Accumulated losses HK$503M. Equity down to HK$1.2M from HK$105M. Gearing 156×.

Pure-play charging in Hong Kong has destroyed capital. Shell's advantage is that charging does not have to stand alone.

Read this before quoting a number

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